Climate Crisis Update March 2021: It’s now as hot on planet earth as it was on average throughout the 30 year period 1991-2020.

This means that, this month at least, according to UAH satellite data, the world is now no warmer than it was in 2012, at the end of the long global warming ‘pause’ from 1998 to 2012. In other words, all of the global warming in the El Nino years after 2012 has been reversed. If the current run of cool months continues, it will not be long before the running 13 month mean coincides with the new 30 year climate normal of 1991-2020. This may happen around November 2021, when the great and the good of UN IPCC and climate concerned world leaders meet in Glasgow for COP26. They’ll be discussing how to avoid man-made Thermageddon in a world which will have refused to warm significantly in 30 years, telling us all that we must give up our cars, our jet set lifestyles (which the fascist vaccine passports will probably already have severely curtailed), our gas boilers and any hope of selling our old houses because of the introduction of new green insulation standards which make them prohibitively expensive to upgrade.

8 comments

  1. OG, The linear warming trend since 1979 is 0.14C per decade, which is significantly less than predicted by climate models. Of course that warming trend won’t ‘stop’; it’s a long term trend contributed largely to by very significant warming in the late 20th century. 21st century warming, despite increasing GHG emissions, is subdued. If El Nino cooling continues as predicted over this year, the 21st century warming trend is going to be reduced even more. How then will climate scientists explain the lack of significant warming over a period of 21 years?

    Like

  2. NOAA hasn’t updated yet for March 2021, but their report on Feb 2021 can be found here:

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202102

    It includes things like:

    “During the month, La Niña continued to be present across the tropical Pacific Ocean during February, helping dampen the global temperatures. Meanwhile, a strong negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) was also present during the first half of the month. Similar to the ENSO affecting global temperatures, the AO can influence weather patterns across the mid-latitudes. In a negative AO phase, the jet stream weakens and meanders, creating larger troughs and ridges. This allows really cold Arctic air to reach the mid-latitudes. Across the U.S., a trough over the central U.S. combined with a ridge over northern Canada to produce a Rex block, which is a blocking pattern that disrupts the jet stream and leads to more prolonged weather patterns. The AO on February 10–11 was -5.3, which essentially ties February 5, 1978 and February 13, 1969 for the lowest February value on record. They were also among the lowest 35 values for any day of the year (>99.9 percentile). By February 26, it had rebounded to +2.7 (97th percentile). The February mean AO was -1.2.”

    And:

    “February 2021 was characterized by colder-than-average temperatures across much of North America and northern Asia, where temperatures were at least 3.0°C (5.4°F) below average. Other areas with below-average temperatures included much of the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, Australia, southern Africa, southern South America, and parts of the southern oceans. North America, as a whole, had its coldest February since 1994 and the 20th coldest February in the regional 112-year record. Similarly, the contiguous U.S. had its coldest February since 1989. For additional climate information on the U.S., please visit the national climate report. Oceania had its coldest February since 2012.”

    And:

    “Averaged as a whole, the February 2021 global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average—the smallest February temperature departure since 2014. However, compared to all Februaries in the 142-year record, this was the 16th warmest February on record. February 2021 also marked the 45th consecutive February and the 434th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average.”

    And:

    “The global land-only surface temperature of +0.79°C (+1.42°F) was also the smallest February temperature departure since 2014 and the 21st warmest since global records began in 1880. Meanwhile, the global oceans had its ninth warmest February on record with a temperature departure of +0.53°C (+0.95°F).”

    There’s also this:

    “Seasonal Temperature: December 2020–February 2021
    The December–February period is defined as the Northern Hemisphere’s meteorological winter and the Southern Hemisphere’s meteorological summer.

    The seasonal global land and ocean surface temperature for December 2020–February 2021 was the eighth highest in the 142-year record, with a temperature departure from average of 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average. This was also the smallest temperature departure since 2014. This was also the 45th consecutive December–February period with temperatures, at least nominally, above average.”

    Big deal, isn’t it? I must remember to re-visit when they get around to updating for March 2021.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Mark, it’s interesting that NOAA are now citing the AO and a wavier jet stream in relation to the influence on generally colder weather in the mid-latitudes, resulting in a cold month globally. Of course we all remember early summer 2018 and the summer heatwaves of 2019 in the northern hemisphere when temperatures soared across many parts because of a stationary wave pattern due to a meandering jet stream. The heat waves and wildfires then were generally attributed to man-made global warming.

      Like

  3. I note from Dr Spencer’s site that Australia is .79 below the 1991-2020 average. This rather large departure has not attracted any media coverage that I have seen, but there was a flurry of reporting of ‘the hottest April day since..”..(I didn’t even listen to since when).
    However, this sort of cool summer with plenty of rain is quite typical right where I live in Tasmania during the La Niña which always occurs at or just after the low of the sunspot cycle, for the last century or so. This is a local effect which, as a farmer, can be depended on occurring every cycle. I’ve not been able to find any other part of the cycle that reliably indicates anything, so you get a couple of years that can be depended on followed by 9 or 10 years when anything can happen.
    It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next few years. I think it will be hilarious to to watch the explanatory contortions IF something like the Zharkova scenario plays out, thereby putting natural variability back on the table, after three decades of talking it down.
    However, I think we just have to wait and see what happens.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Geoff, Willis at WUWT is still doubting the link between El Nino/La Nina and the sunspot cycle, but I think the evidence keeps growing for a connection. Paul Homewood has an article on the NSW floods which the climate fanatics of course are manouevring to claim as due to ‘climate change’ but the fact is, high rainfall in March in NSW appears to be tied to La Nina conditions. Not forgetting the Indian Ocean Dipole of course, which must also strongly influence weather in Australia. This year, 2012 and 1956, when truly record amounts fell, were all wet Marches. Paul rightly points out that 1956 was a lot worse. Coincidentally, 1956, 2012 and 2021 are all moderate La Nina years.

      Like

      1. From what I remember, Willis lumped the whole world together and did a Fourier analysis on temperature(?) and failed to find an 11year frequency spike. Or something like that. I make no claims about anywhere else, but there is a clear connection locally, with rain. I figured this out thirty years ago, by the simple method of graphing two things- how many sunspots in the last twelve months v how much rain in the last twelve months. Of course, Leif has since messed with the sunspot data, and I haven’t repeated it with his new figures, or kept it up to date since he did that.
        The flood thing is quite interesting. How do you compare two floods 50 years apart?
        So much more concrete and other impermeable surfaces (including bare ground and over cropped soil with low organic matter).
        There is a newish grazing method increasingly adopted here based on Alan Savory’s ideas, aimed at full ground cover, increasing soil carbon etc, which I have adopted since 2015. A fortnight ago, we had a rain event which dropped 164mm/ 6+ inches in about 36 hours. I was out looking for runoff after 3 inches had fallen, as my dams were all low, and at that point nothing was running off. The next 3 inches did fill the dams. This is on a stiff clay soil, not noted for great permeability. Some water eventually started leaving the property. It appeared quite clear, so not carrying any soil with it.
        If more people did this, there would be less flooding.

        Liked by 1 person

  4. From NOAA’s site, Global Climate Report section, the temperature anomaly was above the 20th century average by month, as follows (temps in C, not F). I have put the comparable figures in brackets besides the dates, in each case for the same month one year earlier:

    November 2020 +0.97 (+1.01)

    December 2020 +0.78 (+1.05)

    January 2021 +0.8 (+1.14)

    February 2021 +0.65 (+1.17)

    In other words, Nov 2020 was down 0.04C on the year before; Dec 2020 was down 0.27C on the year before; Jan 2021 was down 0.34C on the year before; and Feb 2021 was down 0.52C on the year before. It will be interesting to see what March brings (from the graph you posted, it seems to have been cooler still) and then thereafter.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s