Central England Temperature

Central England Spring Forecast

Looking at the current mean Central England temperature anomaly for May (up to 21st), and looking at the various forecasts out to the end of May (none of which look very promising), I predict that Spring in Central England as a whole will turn out to have a mean temperature of about 7.7C, which ranks it the same as 1902 and 1916 in the Met Office seasonal ranked CET database. This means that Spring 2021 will be probably be ranked 108 in a list of years going from coldest to warmest, with a total of 362 years. So it will turn out cold, but not exceptionally cold, the only reason being is that March 2021 was anomalously warm, though I can’t say I registered that fact here in the East of England. The only really warm day (or two) came right at the end of March before it turned freezing cold at the beginning of April. Spring might turn out to be warmer or even cooler than this, depending on the weather over the next 10 days.

It’s hardly Global Warming Britain though is it, where we’re all being encouraged/coerced/ordered to give up our gas boilers and petrol and diesel cars to prevent the scourge of imminent global Thermageddon. You thought the days of Empire had gone didn’t you? Think again. Apparently, according to our government, if the British people go Net Zero carbon by 2050, meaning no more foreign holidays, no meat, no dairy, no dogs, no cats, no personal transport worth speaking of, sky high electricity bills, smart meters so smart they can dial down your access to electricity when the wind isn’t blowing, maybe even ‘climate lockdowns’ and various other state-imposed eco-austerities, then the rest of the world will look look on and go ‘Wow, we’ll do that too, in order to save the planet, because Great Britain has set such a shining example!’ Because, you see, we currently contribute less than 1% to total global GHG emissions, so the UK reducing its emission to zero is going to make virtually no difference whatsoever to climate change, even assuming that human GHG emissions are the principal driver of climate change – which is a bit difficult to believe given the distinct lack of warming in the 21st century barring natural ENSO events. In fact, the globe is now cooling quite markedly and the failed spring in the UK is probably a symptom of that, as is the current extreme cold in Australia and elsewhere no doubt.

But of course, one cool spring does not a cooling trend make. Springs in England have warmed noticeably since the end of the 1970s. We’ll have to wait at least 10 years to see if 2013 and 2021 will be part of a gradual cooling trend in the 21st century. Meanwhile, when it does get cold, use your gas fired central heating as much as possible because it might not be long before the eco-Nazis turn off the gas supply to your street and demand that you spend twenty grand on a heat pump which won’t do such a good job of keeping you warm.

April 2021 – Coldest Average Minimum CET Since Records Began

If you live in Central England and you thought the nights were exceptionally chilly last month, for April, the second month of Spring, then you would be right. There were numerous frosts throughout the month. I woke up to a hard ground frost on the east coast on St George’s Day and the grass was still frosted in the shade even hours after sun up. The days were cold too, but the nights were something special. So special in fact that April 2021 earns first place by a considerable margin for the coldest average April min CET since records began in 1878. April 2021 min CET = 1.0C. The next coldest April is 1917 at 1.4C, nearly half a degree warmer! That is really quite remarkable. April 1986, in terms of mean diurnal CET, was colder than April 2021 (5.8C vs. 6.4C) but the nights in 1986 were a lot warmer (2.2C vs. 1.0C), even though the days were colder. This undoubtedly comes down to the fact that April 2021 was also very sunny throughout the UK, raising daytime tempertures, but allowing them to plummet in the relentless northerly airflow, which brought cold air from the Arctic over the British Isles throught the entire month.

For the UK as a whole, the Met Office says that April 2021 saw the coldest average minmum temperatures for nearly 100 years:

April 2021 had the lowest average minimum temperatures for April in the UK since 1922, as air frost and clear conditions combined for a frost-laden, chilly month, despite long hours of sunshine.

It was very sunny:

Despite the low minimum temperatures and frosts, much of the UK has been basked in sunshine through April, with all UK countries currently reporting sunshine hours for the month in their top five ever recorded since 1919. This has provisionally seen Scotland and Wales break their existing records for sunshine hours in the month, with the two countries seeing 57% and 45% more sunshine than their long term averages. For Scotland, this would represent the second year running that April’s sunshine hours have broken the existing record, with 2021’s current figure of 211.5 topping 2020’s 204.6 to top the standings.  

The final figures for 2021 don’t appear to be in yet, but April 2021 is definitely challenging 2020 as the sunniest month on record.

Currently the UK is experiencing its second sunniest April on record, with 218.8 hours. As the figures won’t include today’s sunshine totals, there is scope for this figure to rise further, potentially challenging the April record set last year with 224.5 hours. The UK saw 48% more sunshine hours than April’s average figure, and every country in the UK saw at least 40% more sunshine than the long-term average. 

The irony here is that last year’s very sunny April – when the murderous sociopath Matt Hancock banned sunbathing and was threatening to ban all outdoor exercise for everyone because of a nasty bug going round – was also very warm, unlike this year of course. That was inevitably linked to climate change. Dr. Mark McCarthy, for example, wasted no time identifying a trend of warm Aprils due to the UK’s changing climate:

Dr Mark McCarthy is the head of the Met Office’s National Climate Information Centre. He said: “Although April 2020 will be remembered for being the sunniest April on record in England and the UK, along with the sunshine, the month was largely dry with mean temperatures well above average for most parts of the UK. The UK climate is warming, and it is notable that in a Met Office series from 1884 the Aprils of 2003, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2014 and 2020 are all in the top ten warmest.”

Strangely though, he hasn’t done the same this year! Global warming in the UK works in mysterious ways. It makes April sunnier and sunnier, and warmer and warmer, until suddenly it doesn’t and instead it makes April nights the coldest ever recorded going back to 1878, with the days not much better. Of course, real meteorologists know that the clue to this apparently bizarre weather is the changing spring jet stream configuration over the British Isles (and possible decadal trends in that configuration); atmospheric dynamics rather than simple thermodynamics. However, the all-singing, all dancing climate models don’t have much to say about that.