Central England Spring Forecast

Looking at the current mean Central England temperature anomaly for May (up to 21st), and looking at the various forecasts out to the end of May (none of which look very promising), I predict that Spring in Central England as a whole will turn out to have a mean temperature of about 7.7C, which ranks it the same as 1902 and 1916 in the Met Office seasonal ranked CET database. This means that Spring 2021 will be probably be ranked 108 in a list of years going from coldest to warmest, with a total of 362 years. So it will turn out cold, but not exceptionally cold, the only reason being is that March 2021 was anomalously warm, though I can’t say I registered that fact here in the East of England. The only really warm day (or two) came right at the end of March before it turned freezing cold at the beginning of April. Spring might turn out to be warmer or even cooler than this, depending on the weather over the next 10 days.

It’s hardly Global Warming Britain though is it, where we’re all being encouraged/coerced/ordered to give up our gas boilers and petrol and diesel cars to prevent the scourge of imminent global Thermageddon. You thought the days of Empire had gone didn’t you? Think again. Apparently, according to our government, if the British people go Net Zero carbon by 2050, meaning no more foreign holidays, no meat, no dairy, no dogs, no cats, no personal transport worth speaking of, sky high electricity bills, smart meters so smart they can dial down your access to electricity when the wind isn’t blowing, maybe even ‘climate lockdowns’ and various other state-imposed eco-austerities, then the rest of the world will look look on and go ‘Wow, we’ll do that too, in order to save the planet, because Great Britain has set such a shining example!’ Because, you see, we currently contribute less than 1% to total global GHG emissions, so the UK reducing its emission to zero is going to make virtually no difference whatsoever to climate change, even assuming that human GHG emissions are the principal driver of climate change – which is a bit difficult to believe given the distinct lack of warming in the 21st century barring natural ENSO events. In fact, the globe is now cooling quite markedly and the failed spring in the UK is probably a symptom of that, as is the current extreme cold in Australia and elsewhere no doubt.

But of course, one cool spring does not a cooling trend make. Springs in England have warmed noticeably since the end of the 1970s. We’ll have to wait at least 10 years to see if 2013 and 2021 will be part of a gradual cooling trend in the 21st century. Meanwhile, when it does get cold, use your gas fired central heating as much as possible because it might not be long before the eco-Nazis turn off the gas supply to your street and demand that you spend twenty grand on a heat pump which won’t do such a good job of keeping you warm.